Troops in Iran are on highest alert – tensions with Israel have risen to a state that has reached and alarmed the international community. Israel fears an attack from Teheran with nuclear missiles. Iran´s nuclear program seems to be ready to do so, and the new warheads reach far enough. At the same time, Iran seems to be afraid of an Israeli attack, there for alarming its troops to the highest level.
Between the rising tensions of those two states Azerbaijan could play an important role as a mediator, having close ties to both: Israel buys about 30 percent of the oil exported from Azerbaijan, Iran holds between 15 and 30 million ethnic Azerbaijan people within its borders, with close family ties to the state of Azerbaijan. As an Azerbaijan minority in Iran, they feel suppressed – although they are muslim neighbors.
Azerbaijan could be a target for the Iranians, who may think of Baku as an ally to Israel. Also, Iran taking sides with Armenia could encourage Teheran to fight Azerbaijan, that has been in a conflict about Karabagh, an area between Azerbaijan and Armenia region for 20 years now.
Lets hope diplomats will find a way out of the highly complicated tangle very soon. The mix of religions fanatics and energy interests in the Caspian Sea lead to a most dangerous mix of interests. Another war about energy could not be in anybody´s interest. And it would be most dangerous for a much broader community.
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