The conflict about Karabakh has turned into fighting again, after months of relative peace. Occasional shootings along the line of conflict have been frequent in the past years, Karabakh is a so called luke warm conflict. But any open fighting in the region is most dangerous. There are big pipelines in the ground. There are millions of dollars of weapons in both countries. Both countries have their claims, and both are not ready to compromise.
Also, several outside stakeholders have conflicting interests in the area. The South Caucasus is a strategic place for Russia, USA, Great Britain, Norway and EU, Turkey and also Iran!
I have written about the conflict in earlier blogs.
You can wonder what interests one side or the other could have to start the conflict. It could be a conflict between outside actors. But in addition, there could be inner tensions within Azerbaijan or Armenia that should be distracted by an outside conflict.
But to sum up: None of the actors can really have an interest in causing an open war!
Why the conflict is important for Europe:
May 1, 2016
Kazakh President Nasarbayev and Russian President Putin were mediating in the conflict in April. Source: Zentralasien-Analysen 100, April 2016